Pre-open scenarios

Yesterday the market broke out to new multi-month highs. ON there has been a pullback to the 73.6% retrace of this most recent trending move, so from here the path of least resistance is upwards, and there are the cash and futures gaps above. If the market breaks below the 73.4% retrace – which is also at confluence with the BNR at 12100 – then there are multiple layers of support below which only a powerful trending move would be able to get through. There is no confluence around the 61.8% but below it is 12037 where levels are lining to provide robust support.

1-month daily chart showing robust uptrend
3-month daily chart with rising wedge

Futures opened at 12105, leaving a gap of -48pts against the cash close and -67 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Physical/body

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 23:30 so 7.25hrs sleep
How much coffee have I had? half a medium pot
How do I feel? good with plenty of energy and insights from my breath practice

H4 and H1 charts from the morning futures session

Time stamp: 8:35
Scenario 1: fills cash and futures gap and then declines steady throughout out the day to end the day around 12030
Scenario 2: approaches gap but doesn’t quite fill it and then sells off more intensely and breaks through some supports without a pause
Scenario 3: collects more orders at the 73.4% retrace and BNR level and then retests yesterday’s highs – spot on as low was 129097

What the market looked like at the end of the session

M5 Chart showing cash session PA

PA during my trading hours

M1 Chart showing PA between 9:00 and 11:00

Key points about today's PA and setups that worked

The market dropped down to the BNR level, exceeded it by a few points and then trended up for the rest of the day.

  • continuing the strong trend, the market moved up at the open up to the daily pivot and weekly R2
  • from there it began a decline but pausing at the Jan-Fen fib as it had done on the way up
  • there were layers of support below beginning with an H1 TL, the 73.6% fib of the current move and then the BNR at 12100 and below that CBOS and S1
  • the market slowed at the first level and reversed at the BNR without having made it to CBOS and S1
  • the reversal was strong but respected level nevertheless and the pauses at each level allowed for some excellent Imp-Corr and retest entries

How effective was my Neutral Zone? There were many levels close together so in the end I put the top boundary of the Neutral Zone at the gap close and it duly saw a small retrace and then bust through – after which it gained another 90pts.
How precise were my levels? SUP 1 was not a good level because of the BNR, CBOL and S1 below. This should have been 12100 with a plan for what to do once the market reached the first layer of support which was the TL. RES 1 was a zone rather than a level – so that it included the Jan-Feb fib and weekly R2) and this worked well. R2 was also correct but R3 was an underestimate as the market moved through it to make a new high a retest the TL

What I did

TOTAL = +1.4R | # Trades 22 | Winners 6 | BE 2
Average R per winner = 2.2 | Losses > 1R = x | Scratched (loss<1R) = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = x | trades 5:1or more  = x

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (6R) + 5:1 trades (3 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-14xR) = -01.5R
My results vs. SYS = +0.8R
ON TILT trade = 6 (-4.7R)
Rule of 3 = 0
Scratched = 1 variance vs. rules = -1R

Today's most gorgeous setup

Short description

For reference: 6 month cash chart at COB yesterday

Pre-open scenarios

Summary with scenarios

H1 Lower TL x2TPs
H1 Lower TL x2TPs

Futures opened at 12105, leaving a gap of -48pts against the cash close and -67 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Physical/body

Sleep – what time did I go to bed?
How much coffee have I had?
How do I feel?

H4 and H1 charts from the morning futures session

Time stamp: 8:35
Scenario 1: fills cash and futures gap and then declines steady throughout out the day to end the day around 12030
Scenario 2: approaches gap but doesn’t quite fill it and then sells off more intensely and breaks through some supports without a pause
Scenario 3: collects more orders at the 73.4% retrace and BNR level and then retests yesterday’s highs

What the market looked like at the end of the session

H1 Lower TL x2TPs

PA during my trading hours

H1 Lower TL x2TPs

Key points about today's PA and setups that worked

One sentense

  • bullets


How effective was my Neutral Zone?
How precise were my levels?

What I did

TOTAL = x.xR | # Trades x | Winners x | BE x
Average R per winner = x.x | Losses > 1R = x | Scratched (loss<1R) = x
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = x | trades 5:1or more  = x

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (xR) + 5:1 trades (0x x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-xR) = xR
My results vs. SYS = xR
ON TILT trade = x (xxR)

Today's most gorgeous setup

This was just about within my trading session and was a lovely 10R buy. Once the market had retraced to 12100, it formed a clear uptrend, continuing recent trending move.  After closing the gap, the market formed a textbook retrace down to previous resistance at the pivot and weekly R2 which also coincided with the intraday 73.6% fib. From there price contracted for a few bars and then broke back upwards.

For reference: 6 month cash chart at COB yesterday

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