Pre-open scenarios

Yesterday the market hit 12350 – exactly the level I had marked on the chart. From there it sold off down to the BNR at 12300 but then bounced in the US session and ON to come within 20pts of the high. Yesterday’s move also meant that the market broke through the upper TL on the rising wedge. The futures session has been weak so far and the market is now just back inside the wedge. So will the up move continue? As I wrote yesterday, there has not been a break of the previous day’s lows since 11 April and today the low is a long way off at 12224  (100pts below current levels). With this in mind, the first thing to look for is a break of 12300 and then after that, 12265 is a level where a lot of selling was triggered on 18 April. The market is getting more overbought on the daily RSI but this situation can continue for days on end so it is not in itself a signal. Anything can happen, so what is the potential for further gains? There are plenty of levels above which were last seen in September 2018 – and 12500 is an obvious target. Also, this move has made 500pts so far and the Dax can run for a 1000 so never say ‘I think this has gone far enough’ in this market.

1-month daily chart
3-month daily chart

Futures opened at 12329, leaving a gap of +16pts against the cash close and +37 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.


Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 23:45 so 7hrs sleep
How much coffee have I had? Half a medium pot
How do I feel? Good and just focusing on where there is tension in my body makig extra work

H4 and H1 charts from the morning futures session

Time stamp: 8:32
Scenario 1: sells off from the open and drops stright through 12300, pauses at 12265 and then trends down to 12224
Scenario 2: opens strongly and retests yesterday’s high, from there is drops to the futures close and BNR and then reverses up to new highs
Scenario 3: moves down to 12300 at the open, moves up to yesterday’s high and then sells from there and ranges all day between 12350 ad 12265 or the CBOS/S1 area at 12240-245 – this was closest but the early move to well below the BNR and the retest level was the close, not the high

What the market looked like at the end of the session

M5 chart of cash session

PA during my trading hours

M1 chart of trading session (9:00 to 11:00)

Key points about today's PA and setups that worked

Trading was directionless today

  • the clearest move was at the open when the market fillerd the gap and retested the broken H1 TL

  • from there is filled the future gaps and extended below to to 12284 which wasn’t a level I had marked
  • bounced from there to form an upward channel towards the opening level but failed 10pts below there
  • the upward channel broke to form a new but insignificant low at 12277
  • from there it meandered upwards to monthly R3 at 12323 and then formed a S/R zoner with a negative bias
  • that broke down to restest the SUP 1 area and then there was another S/R channel  – this time with an upward bias
  • the day’s range was less than 50pts 12277 to 12323

How effective was my Neutral Zone? With such a directionless day, neither side of the Neutral Zone was hit today; on reflection the upper bound of the Zoner should have been at monthy R3 at 12323
How precise were my levels? SUP 1 was ineffective on the first hit but after that it worked well as resistance and then support; none of the RES levels were in play today

What I did

TOTAL = -8.9R | # Trades 21 | Winners 6 | BE 2
Average R per winner = 1R | Losses > 1R = 0 | Scratched = 3 (+1.4R on missed losse
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = 6 | trades 5:1or more  = 0

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (6R) + 5:1 trades (0 x 2.5R) + BE (0R) + Losses (-14R) = 8R
My results vs. SYS = -0.9R

ON TILT trades = 6 (-4.2R)
Rule of 3 trades = 3 (-0.17R)
Scratched trades =  3 (variance vs. rules = +0.25R)

Today's most gorgeous setup

Selling the gap close at the open made a lot of sense because it was also a retest of a TL and spike, plus there was plenty of room to get to +10 before the futures gap close which was the nexrt downside target. This trade netted around 35pts , which on a day with a 50pt range is a pretty good result.

For reference: 6 month cash chart at COB yesterday

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