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Pre-open Scenarios

The corrective action continues. There is s subtle downward bias counteracted by the upward sloping TL. This is the lines I will be trading today and also looking for a move towards the upper bounds of the range indicated by the green line

1-month chart shows how the market is stuck in a corrective range and has seen very little progress up or down for the last 12 sessions.
3-month chart shows clearly that the bias is upwards.
H4 and H1 charts from morning futures session
On the H4 chart on the left, a steep triangle is forming – there have been a few breaches of eeach of the TLs but they have been quickly reversed. On the H1 chart the supporting TL from the daily chart is shown along with how the upper TL supported prices yesterday.

Whatt the market looked like at the end of the day

The market did fall through the TL but then reversed around 11000 an just shy of the 61.8% fib I have been watching over the last few sessions. It closed on the TL.

Key points about today’s PA and setups that worked
  • Futures and ON session was positive leaving a gap that filled immediately at the open.
  • Buyers pushed it up to RES 1 and that was the HOD.
  • The fib levels were controlling quite a lot of the PA today – especially the 61.8% of the last trending move.
  • There was a negative bias to the day’s moves, and three retests of the close area – this was also three other fib levels making it a very strong confluence area.
  • The low was around 11000 and from there, there was a powerful move up to close the market at the TL, creating a daily bull candle.

How effective was my Neutral Zone? This was a maybe a little generous – the lower line should have been the TL. When there’s a clear triangle forming on the higher tfs, the TLs are more important than the KLs.
How precise were my levels? RES 1 was spot on and the HOD was 7pts above it. SUP 1 was a traded level but not a very clear one – except for the mid-afternoon retest; SUP 2 was exceeded by 15pts as the market went for the fibs below, but it was tradeable because of the fast move into it.

What I did

TOTAL = -1.1R | # Trades 11 | Winners 3 | BE 2
Average R per winner 1.6 | Losses > 1R 0
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more 5 | trades 5:1 or more 1
Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades:
(STE at 1:1 50% off at +20 and 50% off at +50)
1R + 3.5R + 1R + 1R +1 x BE + 5 x -1R = 1.5R

Today’s most gorgeous setup

This was seen in the first minutes of trade and it was a classic 3Min Bolli setup. The STE at 1:1, this trade had reached 10:1 by the end of the session.

For reference: 6 month cash chart at COB yesterday

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