Pre-open scenarios

Yesterday we saw the buy from the 200 MA and the market gained 180pts to reach a high of just under 11800 and the cash session closed on the highs. Since then it has sold off and retested 11704 ON. So what will unfold today? As shown in the charts below, there is a possible new downtrend forming. But the market has some very significant support to get through before it could make the move: there’s the 200 MA at 11617 and the 61.8 fib of the bullish move since in 2019 at 11646. Therefore a strong bounce off either of these levels is possible, as is a break through them. A breakthrough 11617 could trigger a strong trending move down.

1-month daily chart
3-month daily chart

Futures opened at 11742, leaving a gap of -51pts against the cash close and -40 against the futures close. The futures open was within yesterday’s range so there are no ex-gaps.

Physical/body

Sleep – what time did I go to bed? 11:15 so 7.5 hours and slept fairly well
How much coffee have I had? More than half a large pot
How do I feel? Good, been swimming

H4 and H1 charts from the morning futures session

Time stamp: 8:45
Scenario 1: breaks out of triangle early on and bounces from 11700 to retest yesterday’s highs – this was the closest but the low was 711 and it exceeded highs by 190 pts
Scenario 2: breaks out of triangle early on and breaks through 700 to retest and then maybe break 11617
Scenario 3: collects the orders at 11678 area and then ranges all day

What would be today’s easiest trade(s)? Buy at 200 MA, buy 11700 with CBOS below at 798, sell gap close

What the market looked like at the end of the session

M5 chart cash session

PA during my trading hours

M1 chart showing PA during my trading hours

Key points about today's PA and setups that worked

the market made a false break below the H1 open and then trended up all day

  • the first move was the break down through the lower side of the H1 triangle
  • sellers couldn’t push prices down to the BNR or CBOS and bounce strongly from 11711
  • as fits the definition of a strongly trending market, there were very shallow pull-backs at each KL
  • the break above 11750 and the cash cahrt weekly 50MA was a reverse triangle breakout trade, created by the flase break down at the open
  • 3Min Bollis failed today but J-Los, H-C-Bs and Imp/Corr structures won the day
  • the high was just above the daily cash chart 50MA
  • all gaps are now filled apart from the 28 May closing gap at 12007

How effective was my Neutral Zone? The market came within 3pts of the lower boundary and the upper boundary saw only a very shallow pull-back – the H4 TL was a better level.
How precise were my levels? SUP 1 was just 3pts below the LOD; RES 1 didn’t see much of a pull-back but did present an Imp/Corr structure, RES 2 had no impact on the market and the market added another 140pts after punching straight through it and RES 3 should have been R2 rather than the unfilled gap.

What I did

TOTAL = -0.5R | # Trades 7 | Winners 1 | BE 1
Average R per winner = 4 | Losses > 1R = 0 | Scratched = 1
R-multiples: trades 2:1 or more = 1 | trades 5:1or more  = 1

Outcome using standard TP strategy and same trades
2:1 trades (1R) + 5:1 +1xR

ON TILT trades = 3 (-2.4R)
Scratched trades =  1 (variance vs. rules =+0.6R)

Average HRV =N/a

 

Today's most gorgeous setup

This was a Hits-Corrects-Breaks for a break of the H4 TL and the weekly cash chart 50 MA. This was a textbook setup with the market overshooting the level buy a few points and then pulling back to test the 76.4% of the intra-day. This was a 22R trade

For reference: 6 month cash chart at COB yesterday

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