Again? I ended the day -0.5% but I was in some terrific trades that went to more than 5R, so how can I end the day down…?

So what happened?

Missed a long because the trade template failed

This was an M1 TL break in the futures session which often work very well. Market looked robust (open above yesterda’s high and maintained gains) and was within its ranging zone and there was CBOL to aim for. This was easily fixed by recreating the template.

The sell line traded but it was in the wrong place (-0.9R)

So I opened a trade 4 points above the TL. The reaction told me where the buyers were at that point but this obviously was not a trade to be in.

Sold at 10pts off the high of the day but only came out with 1.3R

There were good reasons for this: I adjusted the trade size to move the Stop to above the highs. This was not necessary but it did make sense. Then I used a scalping TP with 70% off at 1:1 (at this point this was a counter-trend trade). This meant closing the majority of the trade at the TL. This is OK because I knew i would have two more shorts opening at that point and I don’t want to have 3R at risk.

I closed the last portion of the trade at +47 which was gap close.

First M1 break was stopped (-1R)

This was fine and told me that the TL was active. Price hit the line, rejected and went straight for CBOL.

First H1 break was stopped because the SL was at 11602 (-1R on a trade that went 8R)

The entry on this trade was perfect at 11570, but I had used a level as the SL and placed it 2pts above the BNR and 1pt above CBOL. This was asking to get hit and it was such a significant TL, that I needed to think through the SL much more thoroughly.

Here and in many of the mistakes here, i was very influenced by recent trade outcomes that have a strong emotional impact i.e. using too wide stops on H1 TL breaks and fantastic gap and ex gap fades. These had way more influence than they should have done over my decision making.

PA for the futures session and first 20mins of the cash market

Second M1 break was massively slipped

The TL was at 11570 and the trade opened at 11565. When I am trading with 10pt stops, this is not acceptable, What can I do to stop the EA opening the trade when this happens.

Action: Screen shot this and make a help ticket.

Third M1 break was a 27.5R trade but I came out with 1.75R

Again I used a scalping TP with 70% off at 1:1. But this is a TL break and it it goes, it really goes so this strategy makes no sense. Fine for the 3Min Bolli short above while we are still in ranging zone but in this one.

This trade sees a lot of false breaks (two already so far today) so it is essential that when it works I capitalise on it. take 25% at 1:1 to reduce risk to 0.5R but after that, work the level

Second H1 break didn’t happen using the EA so I took it manually and late – TP strategy was haphazard so 2.3R from a 6.6R trade.

The entry was still OK and I used 40pt SL. There was not a problem but the EA failure put me off and I saw it as a sub-standard trade and although it did have a nice result, there was not much consideration of levels and possible target.

Then the fun really began and I started BUYING… -4R in 17 minutes..

This shows that two things are going badly wrong here:

  • I am not learning from mistakes.
  • My thinking has become completely rigid.

I had planned to buy the ex-gap and gap close and when they failed, I continued because I have great memories of these trades. With no luck on my gap and ex-gap fades, I bought the BNR twice – and that gave me my 4R loss.

There is a world of difference between a fast move into a level within the trading range and a fast trending move when a KL/TL has been broken and the speed of the move tells me that thee were a lot of people looking at the same thing and itching to get onto the trade. Plus if the market goes straight through the ex-gap and gap fill that is telling you something… it’s TRENDING…

This market saw a few points bounce at the ex-gap, none at gap close, none at BNR and then it went straight through the Pivot and the cash chart weekly 200MA which had been controlling the market for many days. This tells you that the market has a long way to go..that the sellling pressure is HUGE.

I followed this by continuing to BUY where there was no level, losing another a -1R

Having been stumped by the market’s refusal to do what I want, I then decided to buy in no-man’s land at 11470. There were no levels here, I am pissed off.

Half an hour’s trade from 9:17 to 9:48 turned this day into a loser – instead of the 5% gain that could have been achieved

The long trades..

Tried to get on board the sells with a break of S1 but then tightened my stop making a +3.5R trade into -0.6R

I entered at 11442, but yesterday’s low was at 418 and the trade needed to be designed with a stop above CBOS and an opportunity to make it risk free at the next KL (yesterday’s low).

This trade failed because I tightened to stop. The original Stop was 11482 which was just missed – but this also needed to be adjusted for levels. In the chart below while prices are below 38.4% fib of the day’s range, the cash chart weekly 200MA and the pivot, it is still bearish so adjust the SL accordingly. 

Fixed SLs are fine for opening the trade but I really need to check whether the level makes sense. In this case, the market was bearish below the obvious level shown so that’s where the SL needed to be.

Perfect impulse-corrective-TL break sell (+1R), although trade hit 3R

This was a nice trade, but to be really critical, the 70% off at 1:1 is slightly fearful – although, at this point, we are starting to range. The trade was perfectly designed to capture the move down to yesterday’s low with 34 pts available.

Compare this entry to the one above which was just a break of S1 with no real context. Here we had TL break, rejection of CBOS and a level to attract price downwards.

And finally, going long works (0.9R) but WHY?

Then we do get a buy signal and a trade that works. With better TP management (i.e. leaving it at 50pts), using PA context this would have been a 1.6R trade.

This is why: (1) the declines started to slow down over an hour ago and now we are seeing reactions to KLs; (2) we are down 1x 5-day ATR (1.6%) from the highs; (3) there’s y’day low and weekly S1 to support prices; (4) S1 and CBOS are above to act as magnets for the long and (5) a brief compression sets up at the level, giving us an easy entry on the trade.

All of this combines to make a high probability set up.

PA Context for the long entry
The entry

And finally.. instead of using a 50pt TP for the last part of the trade, I moved the TP and it missed (-0.75R)

This was still a counter trend trade therefore use caution. And stick to 50pt targets. This would have been 11470 and the market went to 480. This was compounded by having the short open (the Tried to get on board.. trade above) with a stop that I moved down so that it got hit and the long TP that I moved up on this trade missed.. doh…  This mistake alone cost me a profitable day.