Today I didn’t identify the PA context I was trading and I took fib retraces in a ranging market.

I also didn’t acknowledge the market’s strength. To my eyes, the retrace of the last move up had broken it’s channel to the downside so I was looking for sells. BUT we had a gap up and it held – only retracing to CBOL. Also while it’s true that that channel had broken, it didn’t do anything with it. Both these factors say to look for buys.

For the morning session prices were capped by the 50% retrace of the last move and by R1 (classic method and calculated using the futures open/close).

Plus, as it shows on the chart, I missed a text book compression into this KL. This held for 2.5 hrs and then it exploded to the upside for 100pts.

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